About This Blog
- nicnevins
- Welcome! My name is Nicolas Nevins, and I have created a mathematical formula intended to predict the results of US House Elections. I developed the formula over the past year, and it was quite accurate when retroactively applied to the 2012 and 2014 House elections (the only ones so far fully in the SuperPAC era). The formula includes many components that are believed to help predict the winner of US House races, such as fundraising, independent expenditures, partisanship of a district, and incumbency, among others. On this blog, I will publish and update my predictions for the 2016 elections.
Monday, August 29, 2016
8/29 Ratings Update
At this point in time, I have no rating changes to report. However, that could change following the Florida and Arizona primaries tomorrow. Stay tuned!
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
8/15 Ratings Update
I have several rating changes to report this week. Most come as a change to the Generic Congressional Ballot poll, which is a national poll where respondents are asked whether they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican in their district. Previously, I was operating my formula under a Generic Congressional Ballot of Democrats +5, but the average of the polls taken so far since both conventions is Democrats +6, so my formula is updated to reflect that. A few other changes are a result of primary results or pre-primary fundraising reports.
Rating Changes:
Updated Race Ratings:
Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15 Toss-Ups: 15 (1D, 14R) Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 1 Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +28
New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 219-234 Republicans, 201-216
Democrats
Map: Here is a map of my predictions:
The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
Rating Changes:
Race |
Previous Rating
|
Updated Rating
| |
CA-49 (Issa) |
Leans Republican
| Tilt Republican | |
FL-07 (Mica) |
Leans Republican
| Tilt Republican | |
IL-12 (Bost) |
Leans Republican
| Tilt Republican | |
MI-06 (Upton) |
Leans Republican
| Tilt Republican | |
MN-02 (OPEN) | Likely Democrat | Safe Democrat | |
MN-03 (Paulsen) | Likely Republican |
Leans Republican
| |
NC-06 (Walker) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican | |
NE-02 (Ashford) | Leans Democrat | Likely Democrat | |
NV-02 (Amodei) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican | |
NY-03 (OPEN) | Leans Democrat | Likely Democrat | |
NY-22 (OPEN) | Tilt Democrat | Leans Democrat | |
OH-01 (Chabot) | Likely Republican |
Leans Republican
| |
VA-10 (Comstock)
| Tilt Republican | Toss-Up | |
WI-06 (Grothman)
| Safe Republican | Likely Republican | |
WI-08 (OPEN) | Tilt Republican | Toss-Up |
Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning) | Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning) | Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning) | Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning) | Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning) | Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning) | Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning) | Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning) | Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning) | |
FL02 - (OPEN) | FL25 - (Diaz-Balart) | AK00 - (Young) | CA49 - (Issa) | CA10 - (Denham) | AZ01 - (OPEN) | MI01 - (OPEN) | CA24 - (OPEN) | FL10 - (OPEN) | |
MI08 - (Bishop) | AZ02 - (McSally) | CO03 - (Tipton) | CA21 - (Valadao) | FL13 - (Jolly) | NY19 - (OPEN) | FL26 - (Curbelo) | MN02 - (OPEN) | ||
MT00 - (Zinke) | MI11 - (Trott) | FL07 - (Mica) | CA25 - (Knight) | IA01 - (Blum) | NY22 - (OPEN) | MN08 - (Nolan) | VA04 - (OPEN) | ||
NC06 - (Walker) | MN03 - (Paulsen) | IL12 - (Bost) | CO06 - (Coffman) | IL10 - (Dold) | PA08 - (OPEN) | NE02 - (Ashford) | |||
NC08 - (Hudson) | NC13 - (OPEN) | IN09 - (OPEN) | FL18 - (OPEN) | NJ05 - (Garrett) | NY03 - (OPEN) | ||||
NJ03 - (MacArthur) | NJ02 - (LoBiondo) | MI06 - (Upton) |
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
| NV03 - (OPEN) | |||||
NV02 - (Amodei) | OH01 - (Chabot) | MI07 - (Walberg) | IA03 - (Young) | NV04 - (Hardy) | |||||
NY11 - (Donovan) | SC05 - (Mulvaney) | NY02 - (King) | ME02 - (Poliquin) | VA05 - (OPEN) | |||||
OH14 - (Joyce) | VA02 - (OPEN) | NY21 - (Stefanik) | NH01 - (Guinta) | ||||||
PA06 - (Costello) | NY23 - (Reed) | NY01 - (Zeldin) | |||||||
UT04 - (Love) | NY24 - (Katko) | ||||||||
WI06 - (Grothman) | PA16 - (OPEN) | ||||||||
TX23 - (Hurd) | |||||||||
VA10 - (Comstock) | |||||||||
WI08 - (OPEN) | |||||||||
All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans | All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats |
D Pickups: 15 Toss-Ups: 15 (1D, 14R) Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 1 Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +28
New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 219-234 Republicans, 201-216
Map: Here is a map of my predictions:
The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
Monday, August 1, 2016
8/1 Ratings Update
At this point, I still have no changes to my race ratings. However, over the next week, I hope to begin posting detailed race pages, where I will provide additional details about the most competitive house races.
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