About This Blog

Welcome! My name is Nicolas Nevins, and I have created a mathematical formula intended to predict the results of US House Elections. I developed the formula over the past year, and it was quite accurate when retroactively applied to the 2012 and 2014 House elections (the only ones so far fully in the SuperPAC era). The formula includes many components that are believed to help predict the winner of US House races, such as fundraising, independent expenditures, partisanship of a district, and incumbency, among others. On this blog, I will publish and update my predictions for the 2016 elections.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Welcome!

Welcome to my blog, 435Math, where I will be making predictions for the 2016 US House elections based off of a mathematical formula that I have created. Beginning on July 18th (once the 2nd quarter fundraising numbers are posted to the FEC), I will publish my predictions every Monday morning for each race, as well as a prediction of how many seats each party will control following the elections. In addition, throughout the week, I will begin making individual race pages and write-ups for all competitive races.
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