8/29 Ratings Update

At this point in time, I have no rating changes to report. However, that could change following the Florida and Arizona primaries tomorrow. Stay tuned!

8/15 Ratings Update

I have several rating changes to report this week. Most come as a change to the Generic Congressional Ballot poll, which is a national poll where respondents are asked whether they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican in their district. Previously, I was operating my formula under a Generic Congressional Ballot of Democrats +5, but the average of the polls taken so far since both conventions is Democrats +6, so my formula is updated to reflect that. A few other changes are a result of primary results or pre-primary fundraising reports.

Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	CA-49 (Issa)	Leans Republican	Tilt Republican
	FL-07 (Mica)	Leans Republican	Tilt Republican
	IL-12 (Bost)	Leans Republican	Tilt Republican
	MI-06 (Upton)	Leans Republican	Tilt Republican
	MN-02 (OPEN)	Likely Democrat	Safe Democrat
	MN-03 (Paulsen)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
	NC-06 (Walker)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	NE-02 (Ashford)	Leans Democrat	Likely Democrat
	NV-02 (Amodei)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	NY-03 (OPEN)	Leans Democrat	Likely Democrat
	NY-22 (OPEN)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	OH-01 (Chabot)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
	VA-10 (Comstock)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	WI-06 (Grothman)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	WI-08 (OPEN)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	FL25 - (Diaz-Balart)	AK00 - (Young)	CA49 - (Issa)	CA10 - (Denham)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	MI01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	AZ02 - (McSally)	CO03 - (Tipton)	CA21 - (Valadao)	FL13 - (Jolly)	NY19 - (OPEN)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		MT00 - (Zinke)	MI11 - (Trott)	FL07 - (Mica)	CA25 - (Knight)	IA01 - (Blum)	NY22 - (OPEN)	MN08 - (Nolan)	VA04 - (OPEN)
		NC06 - (Walker)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	IL12 - (Bost)	CO06 - (Coffman)	IL10 - (Dold)	PA08 - (OPEN)	NE02 - (Ashford)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	NC13 - (OPEN)	IN09 - (OPEN)	FL18 - (OPEN)	NJ05 - (Garrett)		NY03 - (OPEN)
		NJ03 - (MacArthur)	NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	MI06 - (Upton)	FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)	NV03 - (OPEN)
		NV02 - (Amodei)	OH01 - (Chabot)	MI07 - (Walberg)	IA03 - (Young)	NV04 - (Hardy)
		NY11 - (Donovan)	SC05 - (Mulvaney)	NY02 - (King)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	VA05 - (OPEN)
		OH14 - (Joyce)	VA02 - (OPEN)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	NH01 - (Guinta)
		PA06 - (Costello)		NY23 - (Reed)	NY01 - (Zeldin)
		UT04 - (Love)			NY24 - (Katko)
		WI06 - (Grothman)			PA16 - (OPEN)
					TX23 - (Hurd)
					VA10 - (Comstock)
					WI08 - (OPEN)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 15 (1D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 1                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +28

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 219-234 Republicans, 201-216

Democrats 

Map: Here is a map of my predictions:














The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts

8/1 Ratings Update

At this point, I still have no changes to my race ratings. However, over the next week, I hope to begin posting detailed race pages, where I will provide additional details about the most competitive house races.