About This Blog

Welcome! My name is Nicolas Nevins, and I have created a mathematical formula intended to predict the results of US House Elections. I developed the formula over the past year, and it was quite accurate when retroactively applied to the 2012 and 2014 House elections (the only ones so far fully in the SuperPAC era). The formula includes many components that are believed to help predict the winner of US House races, such as fundraising, independent expenditures, partisanship of a district, and incumbency, among others. On this blog, I will publish and update my predictions for the 2016 elections.

Monday, October 31, 2016

10/31 Ratings Update

Here is my second-to-last ratings update for the 2016 elections. Although the overall projection is similar, with Democrats projected to pick up approximiately 21 seats, the upper end of the range (which is what would happen if Democrats win every seat at Tilt Democrat or better and they win every Toss-up) is Democrats +28 seats. Although this is not an extremely likely scenario, as the toss-ups should split about evenly between both parties most of the time, it is still within the realm of possibility that Democrats could win every toss-up. As a result, if Democrats can move 2 seats from Tilt Republican to Toss-up over the next week, it would move the upper end of the range to Democrats +30, which would be just enough to give them a real, although unlikely, chance at retaking the House.

Race Rating Changes:

RacePrevious RatingUpdated Rating

AZ02 - (McSally)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

CA10 - (Denham)
Toss-UpTilt Democrat

CA24 - (OPEN)
Likely Democrat
Leans Democrat

CA25 - (Knight)Toss-UpTilt Democrat

FL18 - (OPEN)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

MI01 - (OPEN)
Leans Democrat
Tilt Democrat

MI07 - (Walberg)
Leans Republican
Tilt Republican

MI08 - (Bishop)
Likely Republican
Leans Republican

MN02 - (OPEN)Safe Democrat
Likely Democrat

MT00 - (Zinke)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

NC08 - (Hudson)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

NE02 - (Ashford)
Leans Democrat
Tilt Democrat

NJ02 - (LoBiondo)
Likely Republican
Safe Republican

NV03 - (OPEN)Tilt DemocratToss-Up

NY21 - (Stefanik)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

NY22 - (OPEN)
Leans Democrat
Tilt Democrat

VA02 - (OPEN*)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

WI08 - (OPEN)Tilt Republican
Leans Republican

Updated Race Ratings:










Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)

FL02 - (OPEN)AK00 - (Young)MI08 - (Bishop)MI07 - (Walberg)CA21 - (Valadao)CA10 - (Denham)AZ01 - (OPEN)MN02 - (OPEN)FL10 - (OPEN)

AZ02 - (McSally)NC13 - (OPEN)MN03 - (Paulsen)CA49 - (Issa)CA25 - (Knight)CA24 - (OPEN)NJ05 - (Garrett)VA04 - (OPEN)

FL17 - (Rooney)NY02 - (King)NY01 - (Zeldin)CO03 - (Tipton)IA01 - (Blum)FL13 - (Jolly)NY03 - (OPEN)

FL18 - (OPEN)NY23 - (Reed)NY24 - (Katko)CO06 - (Coffman)IL10 - (Dold)FL26 - (Curbelo)

IL12 - (Bost)WI08 - (OPEN)FL07 - (Mica)ME02 - (Poliquin)MN08 - (Nolan)

KS03 - (Yoder)
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
MI01 - (OPEN)NV04 - (Hardy)

MI06 - (Upton)IA03 - (Young)NE02 - (Ashford)PA08 - (OPEN)

MI11 - (Trott)IN09 - (OPEN)NH01 - (Guinta)

MT00 - (Zinke)NV03 - (OPEN)NY22 - (OPEN)

NC08 - (Hudson)NY19 - (OPEN)

NJ04 - (Smith)PA16 - (OPEN)

NJ07 - (Lance)TX23 - (Hurd)

NV02 - (Amodei)VA05 - (OPEN)

NY21 - (Stefanik)VA10 - (Comstock)

OH01 - (Chabot)

SC05 - (Mulvaney)

VA02 - (OPEN*)

All Other Seats Currently Held by RepublicansAll Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 16     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +21
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +14 - Democrats +28

New Balance of Power: 226 Republicans, 209 Democrats
Range: 219-233 Republicans, 202-216 Democrats

 Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
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Wednesday, October 26, 2016

10/26 Ratings Update

Here are my rating changes for the week of 10/24. I am sorry that it is 2 days late; I have been out of town for the past 4 days. Although there are several changes, the overall picture remains exactly the same, with Democrats predicted to pick up about 20 seats. If Democrats want to have a serious chance of retaking the House, they will need to move beyond the races that they are currently targeting and begin to target some of the Tilt/Leans Republican races.

Race Rating Changes:




RacePrevious RatingUpdated Rating

AZ02 - (McSally)
Likely Republican
Leans Republican

CA49 - (Issa)Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

FL13 - (Jolly)Tilt Democrat
Leans Democrat

FL17 - (Rooney)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

IL10 - (Dold)Toss-UpTilt Democrat

IN09 - (OPEN)Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

KS03 - (Yoder)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

MN08 - (Nolan)
Likely Democrat
Leans Democrat

NC08 - (Hudson)
Likely Republican
Safe Republican

NJ04 - (Smith)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

NJ05 - (Garrett)
Leans Democrat
Likely Democrat

NJ07 - (Lance)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

NY03 - (OPEN)Safe Democrat
Likely Democrat

NY19 - (OPEN)Tilt DemocratToss-Up

NY24 - (Katko)Toss-UpTilt Republican



Updated Race Ratings:

Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)

FL02 - (OPEN)AK00 - (Young)AZ02 - (McSally)MN03 - (Paulsen)CA10 - (Denham)IA01 - (Blum)AZ01 - (OPEN)CA24 - (OPEN)FL10 - (OPEN)

FL17 - (Rooney)FL18 - (OPEN)NY01 - (Zeldin)CA21 - (Valadao)IL10 - (Dold)FL13 - (Jolly)NJ05 - (Garrett)MN02 - (OPEN)

IL12 - (Bost)MI07 - (Walberg)NY24 - (Katko)CA25 - (Knight)ME02 - (Poliquin)FL26 - (Curbelo)NY03 - (OPEN)VA04 - (OPEN)

KS03 - (Yoder)NC13 - (OPEN)WI08 - (OPEN)CA49 - (Issa)NH01 - (Guinta)MI01 - (OPEN)

MI06 - (Upton)NY02 - (King)CO03 - (Tipton)NV03 - (OPEN)MN08 - (Nolan)

MI08 - (Bishop)NY21 - (Stefanik)CO06 - (Coffman)NE02 - (Ashford)

MI11 - (Trott)NY23 - (Reed)FL07 - (Mica)NV04 - (Hardy)

NJ02 - (LoBiondo)VA02 - (OPEN*)
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
NY22 - (OPEN)

NJ04 - (Smith)IA03 - (Young)PA08 - (OPEN)

NJ07 - (Lance)IN09 - (OPEN)

NV02 - (Amodei)NY19 - (OPEN)

OH01 - (Chabot)PA16 - (OPEN)

SC05 - (Mulvaney)TX23 - (Hurd)

VA05 - (OPEN)

VA10 - (Comstock)

All Other Seats Currently Held by RepublicansAll Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats
Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 15R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +28

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 219-234 Republicans, 201-216 Democrats

 Updated Map:
The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
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Tuesday, October 18, 2016

10/18 Ratings Update

Here is my ratings update for this week. The changes are mainly caused by 3rd quarter candidate fundrasing reports, which were posted to the FEC on Sunday and Monday. These changes are also infleuenced by outside spending by SuperPACs. These changes have improved the overall outlook for Democrats, as I now project that Democrats will gain approximately 20 seats, 4 more than I projected last week. However, this is still short of the 30 that they need to retake the House. Nevertheless, there is still time left for Democrats, and outside spending through groups like the DCCC and House Majority PAC will be helpful for them in the upcoming weeks. If they can succeed in moving Toss-Up races into the Tilt Democrat column and Tilt/Lean Republican races into the Toss-Up column, then they may have a good chance of retaking the House.

Race Rating Changes:




RacePrevious RatingUpdated Rating

AK00 - (Young)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

CA21 - (Valadao)
Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

CO03 - (Tipton)Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

CO06 - (Coffman)
Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

FL07 - (Mica)Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

FL18 - (OPEN)Tilt Republican
Leans Republican

FL26 - (Curbelo)Tilt Democrat
Leans Democrat

IA01 - (Blum)Toss-UpTilt Democrat

IA03 - (Young)Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

IL12 - (Bost)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

MD06 - (Delaney)
Likely Democrat
Safe Democrat

ME02 - (Poliquin)
Toss-UpTilt Democrat

MI06 - (Upton)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

MI07 - (Walberg)
Tilt Republican
Leans Republican

MN03 - (Paulsen)
Leans Republican
Tilt Republican

MN08 - (Nolan)
Leans Democrat
Likely Democrat

NJ03 - (MacArthur)
Likely Republican
Safe Republican

NV02 - (Amodei)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

NV04 - (Hardy)Tilt Democrat
Leans Democrat

NY03 - (OPEN)
Likely Democrat
Safe Democrat

NY11 - (Donovan)
Likely Republican
Safe Republican

NY22 - (OPEN)Tilt Democrat
Leans Democrat

PA06 - (Costello)
Likely Republican
Safe Republican

SC05 - (Mulvaney)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

VA10 - (Comstock)
Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

 Updated Race Ratings:

Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)

FL02 - (OPEN)AK00 - (Young)FL18 - (OPEN)CA49 - (Issa)CA10 - (Denham)FL13 - (Jolly)AZ01 - (OPEN)CA24 - (OPEN)FL10 - (OPEN)

AZ02 - (McSally)MI07 - (Walberg)IN09 - (OPEN)CA21 - (Valadao)IA01 - (Blum)FL26 - (Curbelo)MN08 - (Nolan)MN02 - (OPEN)

IL12 - (Bost)NC13 - (OPEN)MN03 - (Paulsen)CA25 - (Knight)ME02 - (Poliquin)MI01 - (OPEN)VA04 - (OPEN)

MI06 - (Upton)NY02 - (King)NY01 - (Zeldin)CO03 - (Tipton)NH01 - (Guinta)NE02 - (Ashford)

MI08 - (Bishop)NY21 - (Stefanik)WI08 - (OPEN)CO06 - (Coffman)NV03 - (OPEN)NJ05 - (Garrett)

MI11 - (Trott)NY23 - (Reed)FL07 - (Mica)NY19 - (OPEN)NV04 - (Hardy)

NC08 - (Hudson)VA02 - (OPEN*)
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
NY22 - (OPEN)

NJ02 - (LoBiondo)IA03 - (Young)PA08 - (OPEN)

NV02 - (Amodei)IL10 - (Dold)

OH01 - (Chabot)NY24 - (Katko)

SC05 - (Mulvaney)PA16 - (OPEN)

TX23 - (Hurd)

VA05 - (OPEN)

VA10 - (Comstock)

All Other Seats Currently Held by RepublicansAll Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +27

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 220-234 Republicans, 201-215 Democrats

 Updated Map:
The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
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Monday, October 17, 2016

Ratings Update Tomorrow

Since many 3rd quarter fundraising reports were not posted to the FEC website until today, my ratings update for the week of 10/17 will be posted tomorrow.
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Monday, October 10, 2016

10/10 Ratings Update

I have a few rating changes to report this week, mostly as a result of outside spending in races. Next week, 3rd quarter campaign finance reports are due to the FEC by Saturday (10/15), and they likely will not all be processed for a few days afterwards. I will not be posting a ratings update next week until all 3rd quarter report data is available through the FEC, which could be Tuesday or Wednesday.

Race Rating Changes:




RacePrevious RatingUpdated Rating

AZ01 - (OPEN)Tilt Democrat
Leans Democrat

CA10 - (Denham)
Tilt RepublicanToss-Up

FL13 - (Jolly)Toss-UpTilt Democrat

FL18 - (OPEN)Toss-UpTilt Republican

IA01 - (Blum)Tilt DemocratToss-Up

IL10 - (Dold)Tilt DemocratToss-Up

MI11 - (Trott)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

NJ05 - (Garrett)Tilt Democrat
Leans Democrat

NV04 - (Hardy)Toss-UpTilt Democrat

NY01 - (Zeldin)Toss-UpTilt Republican

NY02 - (King)Tilt Republican
Leans Republican

NY03 - (OPEN)
Leans Democrat
Likely Democrat


Updated Race Ratings:

Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)

FL02 - (OPEN)AZ02 - (McSally)AK00 -(Young)CA21 - (Valadao)CA10 - (Denham)FL13 - (Jolly)AZ01 - (OPEN)CA24 - (OPEN)FL10 - (OPEN)

MI08 - (Bishop)IL12 - (Bost)CA49 - (Issa)CA25 - (Knight)FL26 - (Curbelo)MI01 - (OPEN)MD06 - (Delaney)MN02 - (OPEN)

MI11 - (Trott)MN03 - (Paulsen)CO03 - (Tipton)
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
NV03 - (OPEN)MN08 - (Nolan)NY03 - (OPEN)VA04 - (OPEN)

NC08 - (Hudson)MI06 - (Upton)CO06 - (Coffman)IA01 - (Blum)NV04 - (Hardy)NE02 - (Ashford)

NJ02 - (LoBiondo)NC13 - (OPEN)FL07 - (Mica)IL10 - (Dold)NH01 - (Guinta)NJ05 - (Garrett)

NJ03 - (MacArthur)NY02 - (King)FL18 - (OPEN)ME02 - (Poliquin)NY19 - (OPEN)PA08 - (OPEN)

NY11 - (Donovan)NY21 - (Stefanik)IA03 - (Young)NY24 - (Katko)NY22 - (OPEN)

OH01 - (Chabot)NY23 - (Reed)IN09 - (OPEN)PA16 - (OPEN)

PA06 - (Costello)SC05 - (Mulvaney)MI07 - (Walberg)TX23 - (Hurd)

VA02 - (OPEN*)NY01 - (Zeldin)VA05 - (OPEN)

VA10 - (Comstock)

WI08 - (OPEN)

All Other Seats Currently Held by RepublicansAll Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats


Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 13     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 10R)     Projected Change: Democrats +16
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +11 - Democrats +21

New Balance of Power: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats
Range: 226-236 Republicans, 200-210 Democrats

 Updated Map:

 The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
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