About This Blog

Welcome! My name is Nicolas Nevins, and I have created a mathematical formula intended to predict the results of US House Elections. I developed the formula over the past year, and it was quite accurate when retroactively applied to the 2012 and 2014 House elections (the only ones so far fully in the SuperPAC era). The formula includes many components that are believed to help predict the winner of US House races, such as fundraising, independent expenditures, partisanship of a district, and incumbency, among others. On this blog, I will publish and update my predictions for the 2016 elections.

Monday, October 31, 2016

10/31 Ratings Update

Here is my second-to-last ratings update for the 2016 elections. Although the overall projection is similar, with Democrats projected to pick up approximiately 21 seats, the upper end of the range (which is what would happen if Democrats win every seat at Tilt Democrat or better and they win every Toss-up) is Democrats +28 seats. Although this is not an extremely likely scenario, as the toss-ups should split about evenly between both parties most of the time, it is still within the realm of possibility that Democrats could win every toss-up. As a result, if Democrats can move 2 seats from Tilt Republican to Toss-up over the next week, it would move the upper end of the range to Democrats +30, which would be just enough to give them a real, although unlikely, chance at retaking the House.

Race Rating Changes:

RacePrevious RatingUpdated Rating

AZ02 - (McSally)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

CA10 - (Denham)
Toss-UpTilt Democrat

CA24 - (OPEN)
Likely Democrat
Leans Democrat

CA25 - (Knight)Toss-UpTilt Democrat

FL18 - (OPEN)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

MI01 - (OPEN)
Leans Democrat
Tilt Democrat

MI07 - (Walberg)
Leans Republican
Tilt Republican

MI08 - (Bishop)
Likely Republican
Leans Republican

MN02 - (OPEN)Safe Democrat
Likely Democrat

MT00 - (Zinke)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

NC08 - (Hudson)
Safe Republican
Likely Republican

NE02 - (Ashford)
Leans Democrat
Tilt Democrat

NJ02 - (LoBiondo)
Likely Republican
Safe Republican

NV03 - (OPEN)Tilt DemocratToss-Up

NY21 - (Stefanik)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

NY22 - (OPEN)
Leans Democrat
Tilt Democrat

VA02 - (OPEN*)
Leans Republican
Likely Republican

WI08 - (OPEN)Tilt Republican
Leans Republican

Updated Race Ratings:










Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)

FL02 - (OPEN)AK00 - (Young)MI08 - (Bishop)MI07 - (Walberg)CA21 - (Valadao)CA10 - (Denham)AZ01 - (OPEN)MN02 - (OPEN)FL10 - (OPEN)

AZ02 - (McSally)NC13 - (OPEN)MN03 - (Paulsen)CA49 - (Issa)CA25 - (Knight)CA24 - (OPEN)NJ05 - (Garrett)VA04 - (OPEN)

FL17 - (Rooney)NY02 - (King)NY01 - (Zeldin)CO03 - (Tipton)IA01 - (Blum)FL13 - (Jolly)NY03 - (OPEN)

FL18 - (OPEN)NY23 - (Reed)NY24 - (Katko)CO06 - (Coffman)IL10 - (Dold)FL26 - (Curbelo)

IL12 - (Bost)WI08 - (OPEN)FL07 - (Mica)ME02 - (Poliquin)MN08 - (Nolan)

KS03 - (Yoder)
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
MI01 - (OPEN)NV04 - (Hardy)

MI06 - (Upton)IA03 - (Young)NE02 - (Ashford)PA08 - (OPEN)

MI11 - (Trott)IN09 - (OPEN)NH01 - (Guinta)

MT00 - (Zinke)NV03 - (OPEN)NY22 - (OPEN)

NC08 - (Hudson)NY19 - (OPEN)

NJ04 - (Smith)PA16 - (OPEN)

NJ07 - (Lance)TX23 - (Hurd)

NV02 - (Amodei)VA05 - (OPEN)

NY21 - (Stefanik)VA10 - (Comstock)

OH01 - (Chabot)

SC05 - (Mulvaney)

VA02 - (OPEN*)

All Other Seats Currently Held by RepublicansAll Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 16     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +21
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +14 - Democrats +28

New Balance of Power: 226 Republicans, 209 Democrats
Range: 219-233 Republicans, 202-216 Democrats

 Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
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