11/07 Ratings Update - FINAL

Here are my final race ratings for the 2016 House elections. Democrats are projected to pick up between 16 and 30 seats, with an average outcome of 23 pickups. As a result, if Democrats win every race that they are expected to win (Tilt Democrat or better), and they win every Toss-Up, they will win an extremely slim House majority of 218-217. However, this is not a likely scenario, as Toss-Ups are expected to be won approximately equally by both parties. As a result, the most likely result after the elections on Tuesday is a Republican majority of 5-10 seats. Nevertheless, a very slim Democratic majority is within the realm of possibility.

Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	CA07 - (Bera)	Safe Democrat	Likely Democrat
	FL07 - (Mica)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	FL13 - (Jolly)	Leans Democrat	Tilt Democrat
	MD06 - (Delaney)	Safe Democrat	Likely Democrat
	MI07 - (Walberg)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	MN03 - (Paulsen)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	NY01 - (Zeldin)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	NY21 - (Stefanik)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
	PA08 - (OPEN)	Leans Democrat	Tilt Democrat
	TX23 - (Hurd)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AK00 - (Young)	MI08 - (Bishop)	NY24 - (Katko)	CA21 - (Valadao)	CA10 - (Denham)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	CA07 - (Bera)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		AZ02 - (McSally)	NC13 - (OPEN)		CA49 - (Issa)	CA25 - (Knight)	CA24 - (OPEN)	MD06 - (Delaney)	VA04 - (OPEN)
		FL17 - (Rooney)	NY01 - (Zeldin)		CO03 - (Tipton)	FL07 - (Mica)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		FL18 - (OPEN)	NY02 - (King)		CO06 - (Coffman)	FL13 - (Jolly)	MN08 - (Nolan)	NJ05 - (Garrett)
		IL12 - (Bost)	NY23 - (Reed)		FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)	IA01 - (Blum)	NV04 - (Hardy)	NY03 - (OPEN)
		KS03 - (Yoder)	NY21 - (Stefanik)		IA03 - (Young)	IL10 - (Dold)
		MI06 - (Upton)	WI08 - (OPEN)		IN09 - (OPEN)	ME02 - (Poliquin)
		MI11 - (Trott)			MI07 - (Walberg)	MI01 - (OPEN)
		MT00 - (Zinke)			MN03 - (Paulsen)	NE02 - (Ashford)
		NC08 - (Hudson)			NV03 - (OPEN)	NH01 - (Guinta)
		NJ04 - (Smith)			NY19 - (OPEN)	NY22 - (OPEN)
		NJ07 - (Lance)			PA16 - (OPEN)	PA08 - (OPEN)
		NV02 - (Amodei)			VA05 - (OPEN)	TX23 - (Hurd)
		OH01 - (Chabot)			VA10 - (Comstock)
		SC05 - (Mulvaney)
		VA02 - (OPEN*)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 18     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +23
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +16 - Democrats +30

New Balance of Power: 224 Republicans, 211 Democrats
Range: 217-231 Republicans, 204-218 Democrats

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts