9/26 Ratings Update

I will not be reporting any rating changes this week. However, as outside groups begin to spend more money, this will begin to influence my predictions more significantly.

9/19 Ratings Update

As a result of a recent trend in the Generic Congressional Ballot polling, I am changing the Generic Congressional Ballot average that I am using from Democrats +6 to Democrats +4. As a result, this moves several races toward the Republicans. In addition, outside groups, such as the DCCC, NRCC, and House Majority PAC, are beginning to spend in races as well, which is also beginning to influence my predictions.

Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	AZ02 - (McSally)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	CA21 - (Valadao)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	CO06 - (Coffman)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	FL13 - (Jolly)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	FL26 - (Curbelo)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	IL12 - (Bost)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	MD06 - (Delaney)	Safe Democrat	Likely Democrat
	MI06 - (Upton)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	MN02 - (OPEN)	Safe Democrat	Likely Democrat
	NE02 - (Ashford)	Likely Democrat	Leans Democrat
	NV02 - (Amodei)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NY03 - (OPEN)	Likely Democrat	Leans Democrat
	NY22 - (OPEN)	Leans Democrat	Tilt Democrat
	OH14 - (Joyce)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	VA05 - (OPEN)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	VA10 - (Comstock)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	WI08 - (OPEN)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican

	Updated Race Ratings:
	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AZ02 - (McSally)	AK00 - (Young)	CA21 - (Valadao)	CA10 - (Denham)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	MI01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		FL25 - (Diaz-Balart)	IL12 - (Bost)	CA49 - (Issa)	CA25 - (Knight)	IA01 - (Blum)	NE02 - (Ashford)	MD06 - (Delaney)	VA04 - (OPEN)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	CO03 - (Tipton)	FL13 - (Jolly)	IL10 - (Dold)	NY03 - (OPEN)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		MT00 - (Zinke)	MI06 - (Upton)	CO06 - (Coffman)	FL18 - (OPEN)	NJ05 - (Garrett)	NY19 - (OPEN)	MN08 - (Nolan)
		NC06 - (Walker)	MI11 - (Trott)	FL07 - (Mica)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	NV03 - (OPEN)	PA08 - (OPEN)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	NC13 - (OPEN)	IN09 - (OPEN)	FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)	NV04 - (Hardy)
		NJ03 - (MacArthur)	NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	MI07 - (Walberg)	IA03 - (Young)	NY22 - (OPEN)
		NY11 - (Donovan)	OH01 - (Chabot)	NY02 - (King)	ME02 - (Poliquin)
		PA06 - (Costello)	SC05 - (Mulvaney)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	NH01 - (Guinta)
		UT04 - (Love)	VA02 - (OPEN*)	NY23 - (Reed)	NY01 - (Zeldin)
		WI06 - (Grothman)		VA10 - (Comstock)	NY24 - (Katko)
				WI08 - (OPEN)	PA16 - (OPEN)
					TX23 - (Hurd)
					VA05 - (OPEN)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 12     Toss-Ups: 14 (1D, 13R)     Projected Change: Democrats +17
R Pickups: 1                                                   Range: Democrats +11 - Democrats +24

New Balance of Power: 230 Republicans, 205 Democrats
Range: 223-236 Republicans, 199-212 Democrats 

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts

9/12 Ratings Update

I have no rating changes to report this week. However, the generic congressional ballot polls have now tightened slightly, with the average being around Democrats +3-4. I am not adjusting my ratings yet, but if these polls do not return to the Democrats +5 range in the next week, then I will update my ratings to reflect this change next week.

9/5 Ratings Update

I have one rating change to report this week, which is due to the result of a primary election.

Rating Change:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	FL-26 (Curbelo)	Likely Democrat	Tilt Democrat

Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	FL25 - (Diaz-Balart)	AK00 - (Young)	CA49 - (Issa)	CA10 - (Denham)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	MI01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	AZ02 - (McSally)	CO03 - (Tipton)	CA21 - (Valadao)	FL13 - (Jolly)	NY19 - (OPEN)	MN08 - (Nolan)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		MT00 - (Zinke)	MI11 - (Trott)	FL07 - (Mica)	CA25 - (Knight)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	NY22 - (OPEN)	NE02 - (Ashford)	VA04 - (OPEN)
		NC06 - (Walker)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	IL12 - (Bost)	CO06 - (Coffman)	IA01 - (Blum)	PA08 - (OPEN)	NY03 - (OPEN)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	NC13 - (OPEN)	IN09 - (OPEN)	FL18 - (OPEN)	IL10 - (Dold)
		NJ03 - (MacArthur)	NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	MI06 - (Upton)	FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)	NJ05 - (Garrett)
		NV02 - (Amodei)	OH01 - (Chabot)	MI07 - (Walberg)	IA03 - (Young)	NV03 - (OPEN)
		NY11 - (Donovan)	SC05 - (Mulvaney)	NY02 - (King)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	NV04 - (Hardy)
		OH14 - (Joyce)	VA02 - (OPEN)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	NH01 - (Guinta)	VA05 - (OPEN)
		PA06 - (Costello)		NY23 - (Reed)	NY01 - (Zeldin)
		UT04 - (Love)			NY24 - (Katko)
		WI06 - (Grothman)			PA16 - (OPEN)
					TX23 - (Hurd)
					VA10 - (Comstock)
					WI08 - (OPEN)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 15 (1D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 1                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +28

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 219-234 Republicans, 201-216

Democrats 

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts