About This Blog

Welcome! My name is Nicolas Nevins, and I have created a mathematical formula intended to predict the results of US House Elections. I developed the formula over the past year, and it was quite accurate when retroactively applied to the 2012 and 2014 House elections (the only ones so far fully in the SuperPAC era). The formula includes many components that are believed to help predict the winner of US House races, such as fundraising, independent expenditures, partisanship of a district, and incumbency, among others. On this blog, I will publish and update my predictions for the 2016 elections.

Monday, September 5, 2016

9/5 Ratings Update

I have one rating change to report this week, which is due to the result of a primary election.

Rating Change:





Race
Previous Rating
Updated Rating

FL-26 (Curbelo)Likely DemocratTilt Democrat

Race Ratings:












Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)

FL02 - (OPEN)FL25 - (Diaz-Balart)AK00 - (Young)CA49 - (Issa)CA10 - (Denham)AZ01 - (OPEN)MI01 - (OPEN)CA24 - (OPEN)FL10 - (OPEN)

MI08 - (Bishop)AZ02 - (McSally)CO03 - (Tipton)CA21 - (Valadao)FL13 - (Jolly)NY19 - (OPEN)MN08 - (Nolan)MN02 - (OPEN)

MT00 - (Zinke)MI11 - (Trott)FL07 - (Mica)CA25 - (Knight)FL26 - (Curbelo)NY22 - (OPEN)NE02 - (Ashford)VA04 - (OPEN)

NC06 - (Walker)MN03 - (Paulsen)IL12 - (Bost)CO06 - (Coffman)IA01 - (Blum)PA08 - (OPEN)NY03 - (OPEN)

NC08 - (Hudson)NC13 - (OPEN)IN09 - (OPEN)FL18 - (OPEN)IL10 - (Dold)

NJ03 - (MacArthur)NJ02 - (LoBiondo)MI06 - (Upton)
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
NJ05 - (Garrett)

NV02 - (Amodei)OH01 - (Chabot)MI07 - (Walberg)IA03 - (Young)NV03 - (OPEN)

NY11 - (Donovan)SC05 - (Mulvaney)NY02 - (King)ME02 - (Poliquin)NV04 - (Hardy)

OH14 - (Joyce)VA02 - (OPEN)NY21 - (Stefanik)NH01 - (Guinta)VA05 - (OPEN)

PA06 - (Costello)NY23 - (Reed)NY01 - (Zeldin)

UT04 - (Love)NY24 - (Katko)

WI06 - (Grothman)PA16 - (OPEN)

TX23 - (Hurd)

VA10 - (Comstock)

WI08 - (OPEN)

All Other Seats Currently Held by RepublicansAll Other Seats

Currently Held by Democrats
Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 15 (1D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 1                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +28

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 219-234 Republicans, 201-216
Democrats 

Updated Map:


The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts

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