About This Blog

Welcome! My name is Nicolas Nevins, and I have created a mathematical formula intended to predict the results of US House Elections. I developed the formula over the past year, and it was quite accurate when retroactively applied to the 2012 and 2014 House elections (the only ones so far fully in the SuperPAC era). The formula includes many components that are believed to help predict the winner of US House races, such as fundraising, independent expenditures, partisanship of a district, and incumbency, among others. On this blog, I will publish and update my predictions for the 2016 elections.

Monday, September 12, 2016

9/12 Ratings Update

I have no rating changes to report this week. However, the generic congressional ballot polls have now tightened slightly, with the average being around Democrats +3-4. I am not adjusting my ratings yet, but if these polls do not return to the Democrats +5 range in the next week, then I will update my ratings to reflect this change next week.
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