10/18 Ratings Update

Here is my ratings update for this week. The changes are mainly caused by 3rd quarter candidate fundrasing reports, which were posted to the FEC on Sunday and Monday. These changes are also infleuenced by outside spending by SuperPACs. These changes have improved the overall outlook for Democrats, as I now project that Democrats will gain approximately 20 seats, 4 more than I projected last week. However, this is still short of the 30 that they need to retake the House. Nevertheless, there is still time left for Democrats, and outside spending through groups like the DCCC and House Majority PAC will be helpful for them in the upcoming weeks. If they can succeed in moving Toss-Up races into the Tilt Democrat column and Tilt/Lean Republican races into the Toss-Up column, then they may have a good chance of retaking the House.

Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	AK00 - (Young)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	CA21 - (Valadao)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	CO03 - (Tipton)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	CO06 - (Coffman)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	FL07 - (Mica)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	FL18 - (OPEN)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	FL26 - (Curbelo)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	IA01 - (Blum)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	IA03 - (Young)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	IL12 - (Bost)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	MD06 - (Delaney)	Likely Democrat	Safe Democrat
	ME02 - (Poliquin)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	MI06 - (Upton)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	MI07 - (Walberg)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	MN03 - (Paulsen)	Leans Republican	Tilt Republican
	MN08 - (Nolan)	Leans Democrat	Likely Democrat
	NJ03 - (MacArthur)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NV02 - (Amodei)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	NV04 - (Hardy)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	NY03 - (OPEN)	Likely Democrat	Safe Democrat
	NY11 - (Donovan)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NY22 - (OPEN)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	PA06 - (Costello)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	SC05 - (Mulvaney)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	VA10 - (Comstock)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AK00 - (Young)	FL18 - (OPEN)	CA49 - (Issa)	CA10 - (Denham)	FL13 - (Jolly)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		AZ02 - (McSally)	MI07 - (Walberg)	IN09 - (OPEN)	CA21 - (Valadao)	IA01 - (Blum)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	MN08 - (Nolan)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		IL12 - (Bost)	NC13 - (OPEN)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	CA25 - (Knight)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	MI01 - (OPEN)		VA04 - (OPEN)
		MI06 - (Upton)	NY02 - (King)	NY01 - (Zeldin)	CO03 - (Tipton)	NH01 - (Guinta)	NE02 - (Ashford)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	WI08 - (OPEN)	CO06 - (Coffman)	NV03 - (OPEN)	NJ05 - (Garrett)
		MI11 - (Trott)	NY23 - (Reed)		FL07 - (Mica)	NY19 - (OPEN)	NV04 - (Hardy)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	VA02 - (OPEN*)		FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)		NY22 - (OPEN)
		NJ02 - (LoBiondo)			IA03 - (Young)		PA08 - (OPEN)
		NV02 - (Amodei)			IL10 - (Dold)
		OH01 - (Chabot)			NY24 - (Katko)
		SC05 - (Mulvaney)			PA16 - (OPEN)
					TX23 - (Hurd)
					VA05 - (OPEN)
					VA10 - (Comstock)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +27

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 220-234 Republicans, 201-215 Democrats

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts

Ratings Update Tomorrow

Since many 3rd quarter fundraising reports were not posted to the FEC website until today, my ratings update for the week of 10/17 will be posted tomorrow.

10/10 Ratings Update

I have a few rating changes to report this week, mostly as a result of outside spending in races. Next week, 3rd quarter campaign finance reports are due to the FEC by Saturday (10/15), and they likely will not all be processed for a few days afterwards. I will not be posting a ratings update next week until all 3rd quarter report data is available through the FEC, which could be Tuesday or Wednesday.

Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	AZ01 - (OPEN)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	CA10 - (Denham)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	FL13 - (Jolly)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	FL18 - (OPEN)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	IA01 - (Blum)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	IL10 - (Dold)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	MI11 - (Trott)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	NJ05 - (Garrett)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	NV04 - (Hardy)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	NY01 - (Zeldin)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	NY02 - (King)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	NY03 - (OPEN)	Leans Democrat	Likely Democrat

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AZ02 - (McSally)	AK00 -(Young)	CA21 - (Valadao)	CA10 - (Denham)	FL13 - (Jolly)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	IL12 - (Bost)	CA49 - (Issa)	CA25 - (Knight)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	MI01 - (OPEN)	MD06 - (Delaney)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		MI11 - (Trott)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	CO03 - (Tipton)	FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)	NV03 - (OPEN)	MN08 - (Nolan)	NY03 - (OPEN)	VA04 - (OPEN)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	MI06 - (Upton)	CO06 - (Coffman)	IA01 - (Blum)	NV04 - (Hardy)	NE02 - (Ashford)
		NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	NC13 - (OPEN)	FL07 - (Mica)	IL10 - (Dold)	NH01 - (Guinta)	NJ05 - (Garrett)
		NJ03 - (MacArthur)	NY02 - (King)	FL18 - (OPEN)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	NY19 - (OPEN)	PA08 - (OPEN)
		NY11 - (Donovan)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	IA03 - (Young)	NY24 - (Katko)	NY22 - (OPEN)
		OH01 - (Chabot)	NY23 - (Reed)	IN09 - (OPEN)	PA16 - (OPEN)
		PA06 - (Costello)	SC05 - (Mulvaney)	MI07 - (Walberg)	TX23 - (Hurd)
			VA02 - (OPEN*)	NY01 - (Zeldin)	VA05 - (OPEN)
				VA10 - (Comstock)
				WI08 - (OPEN)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 13     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 10R)     Projected Change: Democrats +16
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +11 - Democrats +21

New Balance of Power: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats
Range: 226-236 Republicans, 200-210 Democrats

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts

10/3 Ratings Update

The rating changes made this week are primarily influenced by outside spending, or the lack of it, in several races. In addition, one change I am making to my formula beginning this week is that I will begin using the HuffPost Pollster average (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-house-race) for my generic congressional ballot average instead of arbitrarily assigning a value. This week, the average is Democrats +4.3, which is quite similar to what I had been using.
At this point, it seems unlikely that Democrats will be able to retake the house, as my current projected change is Democrats +16 seats, and the number of toss-ups has begun to dwindle, so that even if Democrats won every toss-up they would only pick up 22 seats, short of the 30 that they need. However, there are a few reasons why a Democratic takeover of the House is still possible:

1. The October fundraising filing deadline has not yet passed, meaning that we are still using fundraising data from June in many races. This disproportionately helps incumbents in competitive races, most of whom are Republicans this year, because they have had much more time to fundraise than their challengers. As a result, this could artificially be giving some Republican incumbents a lead that will disappear once all candidates file updated fundraising totals on October 15.
2. Outside spending organizations (SuperPACs), like the DCCC, NRCC, House Majority PAC, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, have only just begun to spend in races. According to my data from past years, outside spending disproportionately helps challengers, most of whom are Democrats this year. Although I do not know the exact reason for the trend, it is possibly because outside spending signals to voters that it is a competitive race and makes them more aware of the challenger and less likely to vote for the incumbent. Regardless of the reason for this trend, as outside spending increases, Democrats are likely to benefit.
3. Donald Trump. Following the first Presidential debate, Donald Trump's poll numbers have already begun to decrease, and it is quite possible that Hillary Clinton could win a large victory of 5 points or even more nationally. This would likely help Democrats in House races, especially in districts where Donald Trump will do disproportionately poorly, like districts with a high population of Hispanics or people with a college degree. So far, Republican incumbents in these districts have done a good job of evading Donald Trump; there have been several polls released that show Hillary Clinton winning a district by a large margin yet the Republican incumbent still leads. However, if Hillary Clinton wins some districts with Republican incumbents by a large margin and outside spending can effectively tie Republican incumbents in these districts to Donald Trump, it is unlikely that these Republican incumbents will be able to survive.

Here are my rating changes for this week:
Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	CA10 - (Denham)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	FL25 - (Diaz-Balart)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	FL26 - (Curbelo)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	IA03 - (Young)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	MN02 - (OPEN)	Likely Democrat	Safe Democrat
	MN08 - (Nolan)	Likely Democrat	Leans Democrat
	MT00 - (Zinke)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NC06 - (Walker)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NH01 - (Guinta)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	NV04 - (Hardy)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	NY19 - (OPEN)	Leans Democrat	Tilt Democrat
	NY21 - (Stefanik)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	NY23 - (Reed)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	OH01 - Chabot	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	UT04 - (Love)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	WI06 - (Grothman)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AZ02 - (McSally)	AK00 - (Young)	CA10 - (Denham)	CA25 - (Knight)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	MI01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	IL12 - (Bost)	CA21 - (Valadao)	FL13 - (Jolly)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	MN08 - (Nolan)	MD06 - (Delaney)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	CA49 - (Issa)	FL18 - (OPEN)	IA01 - (Blum)	NE02 - (Ashford)		VA04 - (OPEN)
		NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	MI06 - (Upton)	CO03 - (Tipton)	FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)	IL10 - (Dold)	NY03 - (OPEN)
		NJ03 - (MacArthur)	MI11 - (Trott)	CO06 - (Coffman)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	NJ05 - (Garrett)	PA08 - (OPEN)
		NY11 - (Donovan)	NC13 - (OPEN)	FL07 - (Mica)	NV04 - (Hardy)	NV03 - (OPEN)
		OH01 - (Chabot)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	IA03 - (Young)	NY01 - (Zeldin)	NH01 - (Guinta)
		PA06 - (Costello)	NY23 - (Reed)	IN09 - (OPEN)	NY24 - (Katko)	NY19 - (OPEN)
			SC05 - (Mulvaney)	MI07 - (Walberg)	PA16 - (OPEN)	NY22 - (OPEN)
			VA02 - (OPEN*)	NY02 - (King)	TX23 - (Hurd)
				VA10 - (Comstock)	VA05 - (OPEN)
				WI08 - (OPEN)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 13     Toss-Ups: 11 (1D, 10R)     Projected Change: Democrats +16
R Pickups: 1                                                   Range: Democrats +11 - Democrats +22

New Balance of Power: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats
Range: 225-236 Republicans, 199-210 Democrats 

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts

9/26 Ratings Update

I will not be reporting any rating changes this week. However, as outside groups begin to spend more money, this will begin to influence my predictions more significantly.