Welcome! My name is Nicolas Nevins, and I have created a mathematical formula intended to predict the results of US House Elections. I developed the formula over the past year, and it was quite accurate when retroactively applied to the 2012 and 2014 House elections (the only ones so far fully in the SuperPAC era). The formula includes many components that are believed to help predict the winner of US House races, such as fundraising, independent expenditures, partisanship of a district, and incumbency, among others. On this blog, I will publish and update my predictions for the 2016 elections.
Since many 3rd quarter fundraising reports were not posted to the FEC website until today, my ratings update for the week of 10/17 will be posted tomorrow.
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