10/26 Ratings Update

Here are my rating changes for the week of 10/24. I am sorry that it is 2 days late; I have been out of town for the past 4 days. Although there are several changes, the overall picture remains exactly the same, with Democrats predicted to pick up about 20 seats. If Democrats want to have a serious chance of retaking the House, they will need to move beyond the races that they are currently targeting and begin to target some of the Tilt/Leans Republican races.

Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	AZ02 - (McSally)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
	CA49 - (Issa)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	FL13 - (Jolly)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	FL17 - (Rooney)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	IL10 - (Dold)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	IN09 - (OPEN)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	KS03 - (Yoder)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	MN08 - (Nolan)	Likely Democrat	Leans Democrat
	NC08 - (Hudson)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NJ04 - (Smith)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	NJ05 - (Garrett)	Leans Democrat	Likely Democrat
	NJ07 - (Lance)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	NY03 - (OPEN)	Safe Democrat	Likely Democrat
	NY19 - (OPEN)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	NY24 - (Katko)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AK00 - (Young)	AZ02 - (McSally)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	CA10 - (Denham)	IA01 - (Blum)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		FL17 - (Rooney)	FL18 - (OPEN)	NY01 - (Zeldin)	CA21 - (Valadao)	IL10 - (Dold)	FL13 - (Jolly)	NJ05 - (Garrett)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		IL12 - (Bost)	MI07 - (Walberg)	NY24 - (Katko)	CA25 - (Knight)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	NY03 - (OPEN)	VA04 - (OPEN)
		KS03 - (Yoder)	NC13 - (OPEN)	WI08 - (OPEN)	CA49 - (Issa)	NH01 - (Guinta)	MI01 - (OPEN)
		MI06 - (Upton)	NY02 - (King)		CO03 - (Tipton)	NV03 - (OPEN)	MN08 - (Nolan)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	NY21 - (Stefanik)		CO06 - (Coffman)		NE02 - (Ashford)
		MI11 - (Trott)	NY23 - (Reed)		FL07 - (Mica)		NV04 - (Hardy)
		NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	VA02 - (OPEN*)		FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)		NY22 - (OPEN)
		NJ04 - (Smith)			IA03 - (Young)		PA08 - (OPEN)
		NJ07 - (Lance)			IN09 - (OPEN)
		NV02 - (Amodei)			NY19 - (OPEN)
		OH01 - (Chabot)			PA16 - (OPEN)
		SC05 - (Mulvaney)			TX23 - (Hurd)
					VA05 - (OPEN)
					VA10 - (Comstock)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 15R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +28

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 219-234 Republicans, 201-216 Democrats

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts