10/10 Ratings Update

I have a few rating changes to report this week, mostly as a result of outside spending in races. Next week, 3rd quarter campaign finance reports are due to the FEC by Saturday (10/15), and they likely will not all be processed for a few days afterwards. I will not be posting a ratings update next week until all 3rd quarter report data is available through the FEC, which could be Tuesday or Wednesday.

Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	AZ01 - (OPEN)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	CA10 - (Denham)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	FL13 - (Jolly)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	FL18 - (OPEN)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	IA01 - (Blum)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	IL10 - (Dold)	Tilt Democrat	Toss-Up
	MI11 - (Trott)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	NJ05 - (Garrett)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	NV04 - (Hardy)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	NY01 - (Zeldin)	Toss-Up	Tilt Republican
	NY02 - (King)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	NY03 - (OPEN)	Leans Democrat	Likely Democrat

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AZ02 - (McSally)	AK00 -(Young)	CA21 - (Valadao)	CA10 - (Denham)	FL13 - (Jolly)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	IL12 - (Bost)	CA49 - (Issa)	CA25 - (Knight)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	MI01 - (OPEN)	MD06 - (Delaney)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		MI11 - (Trott)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	CO03 - (Tipton)	FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)	NV03 - (OPEN)	MN08 - (Nolan)	NY03 - (OPEN)	VA04 - (OPEN)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	MI06 - (Upton)	CO06 - (Coffman)	IA01 - (Blum)	NV04 - (Hardy)	NE02 - (Ashford)
		NJ02 - (LoBiondo)	NC13 - (OPEN)	FL07 - (Mica)	IL10 - (Dold)	NH01 - (Guinta)	NJ05 - (Garrett)
		NJ03 - (MacArthur)	NY02 - (King)	FL18 - (OPEN)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	NY19 - (OPEN)	PA08 - (OPEN)
		NY11 - (Donovan)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	IA03 - (Young)	NY24 - (Katko)	NY22 - (OPEN)
		OH01 - (Chabot)	NY23 - (Reed)	IN09 - (OPEN)	PA16 - (OPEN)
		PA06 - (Costello)	SC05 - (Mulvaney)	MI07 - (Walberg)	TX23 - (Hurd)
			VA02 - (OPEN*)	NY01 - (Zeldin)	VA05 - (OPEN)
				VA10 - (Comstock)
				WI08 - (OPEN)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 13     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 10R)     Projected Change: Democrats +16
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +11 - Democrats +21

New Balance of Power: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats
Range: 226-236 Republicans, 200-210 Democrats

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts