10/18 Ratings Update

Here is my ratings update for this week. The changes are mainly caused by 3rd quarter candidate fundrasing reports, which were posted to the FEC on Sunday and Monday. These changes are also infleuenced by outside spending by SuperPACs. These changes have improved the overall outlook for Democrats, as I now project that Democrats will gain approximately 20 seats, 4 more than I projected last week. However, this is still short of the 30 that they need to retake the House. Nevertheless, there is still time left for Democrats, and outside spending through groups like the DCCC and House Majority PAC will be helpful for them in the upcoming weeks. If they can succeed in moving Toss-Up races into the Tilt Democrat column and Tilt/Lean Republican races into the Toss-Up column, then they may have a good chance of retaking the House.

Race Rating Changes:

	Race	Previous Rating	Updated Rating
	AK00 - (Young)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	CA21 - (Valadao)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	CO03 - (Tipton)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	CO06 - (Coffman)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	FL07 - (Mica)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	FL18 - (OPEN)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	FL26 - (Curbelo)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	IA01 - (Blum)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	IA03 - (Young)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up
	IL12 - (Bost)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	MD06 - (Delaney)	Likely Democrat	Safe Democrat
	ME02 - (Poliquin)	Toss-Up	Tilt Democrat
	MI06 - (Upton)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	MI07 - (Walberg)	Tilt Republican	Leans Republican
	MN03 - (Paulsen)	Leans Republican	Tilt Republican
	MN08 - (Nolan)	Leans Democrat	Likely Democrat
	NJ03 - (MacArthur)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NV02 - (Amodei)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
	NV04 - (Hardy)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	NY03 - (OPEN)	Likely Democrat	Safe Democrat
	NY11 - (Donovan)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	NY22 - (OPEN)	Tilt Democrat	Leans Democrat
	PA06 - (Costello)	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
	SC05 - (Mulvaney)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
	VA10 - (Comstock)	Tilt Republican	Toss-Up

Updated Race Ratings:

	Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning)	Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning)	Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning)	Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning)	Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning)	Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning)
	FL02 - (OPEN)	AK00 - (Young)	FL18 - (OPEN)	CA49 - (Issa)	CA10 - (Denham)	FL13 - (Jolly)	AZ01 - (OPEN)	CA24 - (OPEN)	FL10 - (OPEN)
		AZ02 - (McSally)	MI07 - (Walberg)	IN09 - (OPEN)	CA21 - (Valadao)	IA01 - (Blum)	FL26 - (Curbelo)	MN08 - (Nolan)	MN02 - (OPEN)
		IL12 - (Bost)	NC13 - (OPEN)	MN03 - (Paulsen)	CA25 - (Knight)	ME02 - (Poliquin)	MI01 - (OPEN)		VA04 - (OPEN)
		MI06 - (Upton)	NY02 - (King)	NY01 - (Zeldin)	CO03 - (Tipton)	NH01 - (Guinta)	NE02 - (Ashford)
		MI08 - (Bishop)	NY21 - (Stefanik)	WI08 - (OPEN)	CO06 - (Coffman)	NV03 - (OPEN)	NJ05 - (Garrett)
		MI11 - (Trott)	NY23 - (Reed)		FL07 - (Mica)	NY19 - (OPEN)	NV04 - (Hardy)
		NC08 - (Hudson)	VA02 - (OPEN*)		FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)		NY22 - (OPEN)
		NJ02 - (LoBiondo)			IA03 - (Young)		PA08 - (OPEN)
		NV02 - (Amodei)			IL10 - (Dold)
		OH01 - (Chabot)			NY24 - (Katko)
		SC05 - (Mulvaney)			PA16 - (OPEN)
					TX23 - (Hurd)
					VA05 - (OPEN)
					VA10 - (Comstock)
	All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans								All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats

Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 15     Toss-Ups: 10 (0D, 14R)     Projected Change: Democrats +20
R Pickups: 2                                                   Range: Democrats +13 - Democrats +27

New Balance of Power: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats
Range: 220-234 Republicans, 201-215 Democrats

Updated Map:

The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts