At this point, it seems unlikely that Democrats will be able to retake the house, as my current projected change is Democrats +16 seats, and the number of toss-ups has begun to dwindle, so that even if Democrats won every toss-up they would only pick up 22 seats, short of the 30 that they need. However, there are a few reasons why a Democratic takeover of the House is still possible:
- The October fundraising filing deadline has not yet passed, meaning that we are still using fundraising data from June in many races. This disproportionately helps incumbents in competitive races, most of whom are Republicans this year, because they have had much more time to fundraise than their challengers. As a result, this could artificially be giving some Republican incumbents a lead that will disappear once all candidates file updated fundraising totals on October 15.
- Outside spending organizations (SuperPACs), like the DCCC, NRCC, House Majority PAC, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, have only just begun to spend in races. According to my data from past years, outside spending disproportionately helps challengers, most of whom are Democrats this year. Although I do not know the exact reason for the trend, it is possibly because outside spending signals to voters that it is a competitive race and makes them more aware of the challenger and less likely to vote for the incumbent. Regardless of the reason for this trend, as outside spending increases, Democrats are likely to benefit.
- Donald Trump. Following the first Presidential debate, Donald Trump's poll numbers have already begun to decrease, and it is quite possible that Hillary Clinton could win a large victory of 5 points or even more nationally. This would likely help Democrats in House races, especially in districts where Donald Trump will do disproportionately poorly, like districts with a high population of Hispanics or people with a college degree. So far, Republican incumbents in these districts have done a good job of evading Donald Trump; there have been several polls released that show Hillary Clinton winning a district by a large margin yet the Republican incumbent still leads. However, if Hillary Clinton wins some districts with Republican incumbents by a large margin and outside spending can effectively tie Republican incumbents in these districts to Donald Trump, it is unlikely that these Republican incumbents will be able to survive.
Here are my rating changes for this week:
Race Rating Changes:
| Race | Previous Rating | Updated Rating | |
CA10 - (Denham)
| Toss-Up | Tilt Republican | |
FL25 - (Diaz-Balart)
|
Likely Republican
|
Safe Republican
| |
| FL26 - (Curbelo) | Toss-Up | Tilt Democrat | |
| IA03 - (Young) | Toss-Up | Tilt Republican | |
| MN02 - (OPEN) |
Likely Democrat
| Safe Democrat | |
| MN08 - (Nolan) |
Likely Democrat
|
Leans Democrat
| |
| MT00 - (Zinke) |
Likely Republican
|
Safe Republican
| |
| NC06 - (Walker) |
Likely Republican
|
Safe Republican
| |
| NH01 - (Guinta) | Toss-Up | Tilt Democrat | |
NJ02 - (LoBiondo)
|
Leans Republican
|
Likely Republican
| |
| NV04 - (Hardy) | Tilt Democrat | Toss-Up | |
| NY19 - (OPEN) |
Leans Democrat
| Tilt Democrat | |
NY21 - (Stefanik)
| Tilt Republican |
Leans Republican
| |
| NY23 - (Reed) | Tilt Republican |
Leans Republican
| |
| OH01 - Chabot |
Leans Republican
|
Likely Republican
| |
| UT04 - (Love) |
Likely Republican
|
Safe Republican
| |
WI06 - (Grothman)
|
Likely Republican
|
Safe Republican
|
Updated Race Ratings:
| Safe Republican (Republican has >95% chance of winning) | Likely Republican (Republican has 85%-95% chance of winning) | Leans Republican (Republican has 75%-85% chance of winning) | Tilt Repubican (Republican has 65%-75% chance of winning) | Toss-Up (Either side has <65% chance of winning) | Tilt Democrat (Democrat has 65%-75% chance of winning) | Leans Democrat (Democrat has 75%-85% chance of winning) | Likely Democrat (Democrat has 85%-95% chance of winning) | Safe Democrat (Democrat has >95% chance of winning) | |
| FL02 - (OPEN) | AZ02 - (McSally) | AK00 - (Young) | CA10 - (Denham) | CA25 - (Knight) | AZ01 - (OPEN) | MI01 - (OPEN) | CA24 - (OPEN) | FL10 - (OPEN) | |
| MI08 - (Bishop) | IL12 - (Bost) | CA21 - (Valadao) | FL13 - (Jolly) | FL26 - (Curbelo) | MN08 - (Nolan) | MD06 - (Delaney) | MN02 - (OPEN) | ||
| NC08 - (Hudson) | MN03 - (Paulsen) | CA49 - (Issa) | FL18 - (OPEN) | IA01 - (Blum) | NE02 - (Ashford) | VA04 - (OPEN) | |||
| NJ02 - (LoBiondo) | MI06 - (Upton) | CO03 - (Tipton) |
FL27 - (Ros-Lehtinen)
| IL10 - (Dold) | NY03 - (OPEN) | ||||
| NJ03 - (MacArthur) | MI11 - (Trott) | CO06 - (Coffman) | ME02 - (Poliquin) | NJ05 - (Garrett) | PA08 - (OPEN) | ||||
| NY11 - (Donovan) | NC13 - (OPEN) | FL07 - (Mica) | NV04 - (Hardy) | NV03 - (OPEN) | |||||
| OH01 - (Chabot) | NY21 - (Stefanik) | IA03 - (Young) | NY01 - (Zeldin) | NH01 - (Guinta) | |||||
| PA06 - (Costello) | NY23 - (Reed) | IN09 - (OPEN) | NY24 - (Katko) | NY19 - (OPEN) | |||||
| SC05 - (Mulvaney) | MI07 - (Walberg) | PA16 - (OPEN) | NY22 - (OPEN) | ||||||
| VA02 - (OPEN*) | NY02 - (King) | TX23 - (Hurd) | |||||||
| VA10 - (Comstock) | VA05 - (OPEN) | ||||||||
| WI08 - (OPEN) | |||||||||
| All Other Seats Currently Held by Republicans | All Other Seats Currently Held by Democrats |
Projected Balance of Power: Currently 247 Republicans, 188 Democrats
D Pickups: 13 Toss-Ups: 11 (1D, 10R) Projected Change: Democrats +16
R Pickups: 1 Range: Democrats +11 - Democrats +22
New Balance of Power: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats
Range: 225-236 Republicans, 199-210 Democrats
Updated Map:
The map that I use is a hexagonal congressional district map, which is a map where every district is the same size geographically, making it possible to see districts in urban areas that cannot be distinguished under a normal congressional district map. I am using this map under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license You can read more about it here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/6/3/1389806/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-the-best-map-ever-of-United-States-congressional-districts
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